Michal Hudec comments (not only EU) politics

Fellows, do not be over-optimistic about Barack Obama

Posted by mmisso on 05/11/08

After Senator of Illinois, Mr. Barack Obama has become US president-elect, many European leaders expressed their high expectations immediately. Very shortly, there have been much said about multilateral approach and mutual cooperation in areas of international politics, security threats or climate change. On the other hand, some facts suggest that even with Obama, EU could live hard times:

Obama is US president, whose mandate is linked to US voters, not European leaders. In other words he would act responsible and responsive according to US citizens’ will and preferences at most;
US is still one superpower without real competitor, so if appropriate, Washington could act unilaterally anytime and anywhere;
what US expects from Europe is to be responsible for own security and to act as a responsible actor involved in NATO foreign missions. If Europe is not able to behave so, it cannot expect that US would support European policies, approach to climate change included;
Obama is symbol, Afroamerican hero, but still human with own preferences and under influence of interest groups that supported him. He will listen to businessmen, lobbists and influential advisors at first, to European leaders just after;
current president-elect is exceptional because of his roots, but at the same time only 44th after fourty-three previous ones. In addition, being Democrat doesn’t imply sympathy with Europe;
if we look to the history, US foreign policy used to be isolationistic, particularly because of heritage of George Washington’s farewell speech. Close cooperation with Europe during Cold War period seems to be exception, not business as usual. When soviet threat becomes far more and more, probability of returning US foreign policy to historical track increases, even under Obama’s leadership.

Well, don’t be over-optimistic and start thinking realistic. At the same time, it is true that whoever would have won US election, he would cooperate with EU more than George W. Bush had done.

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PAR

Comment by PAR | 2008/11/06 at 11:12:23

Dear Michal,

You’re right to point. We, Europeans, have to be realistic and not forget history and basics of US external policy. However, however… I am confident that Barack Obama US’ elections victory will trigger more cooperation in areas of international politics. I am hoping for a change just like UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon recently said: “I am confident that we can look forward to an era of renewed partnership and a new multilateralism.”

The very start of your demonstration states “US is still one superpower without real competitor”. But is it still true in the 21st century?

Iraq’s war disaster isn’t showing the weaknesses of US military power? The financial crisis isn’t showing the weaknesses of US economy in a globalised world? etc.

I would also add that People’s Republic of China, the European Union, India, and Russia, due to their large populations, growing military strength, and economic potential and influence in international affairs are among the powers reaching the status of “superpowers”.

But at the end, the historical notion of a “superpower” is increasingly anachronistic in the 21st century as increased global integration and interdependence makes the projection of a superpower impossible.

Time will tell…
mmisso

Comment by mmisso | 2008/11/06 at 12:49:53

Dear Pierre-Antoine,

I agree that time will tell and the future will approve or reject.

To your question whether US is superpower in 21st century or it is not. According to my opinion, there are just two countries that cannot be defeated by any military power: US and Russia. I call them candidates for becomenig superpower. On the other hand, having the most powerful army is insufficient. The second condition is therefore to be the most influential on the field of world economy. This time, there are two currecies that are used as universal money in circulation in the world (even in times of global financial crisic): dollar and euro. Only US meets these two denominators at the same time, so I name it as a “superpower without real competitor.”

Iraq, financial crisis, India, China etc. Don’t they are just challanges that we are all facing? I am not sure if they are the results of weakness of US. I think these phenomenons are the outcomes of evolution of international politics-environment of that US is the one part as well.
mrpras

Comment by mrpras | 2008/11/08 at 00:09:05

As he reminds the people in his early winning speech, it is up to us all. I see this not as a victory for one person, that we should now all expect great change from Obama. For me, this is a victory for the US people and their voting system, a victory of hope.

How long before he is killed, that remains to be seen. Surely there are extremist groups in the US that will not stand for a negro president. Still, he is just a president, he’s not a prophet, messiah or magician.

One thing I find myself aware of is that if he allowed even 1% of the atrocities that George W condoned, he would be thrown in jail in a second. Still, congratulations to the people for voting the first president in recent history who actually made any sense.

Young European of Slovak nationality. Interested in politics, international relations ICT and social media. He fell in love with mountains (very important information, at all). more.

Fellows, do not be over-optimistic about Barack Obama

3 Responses to Fellows, do not be over-optimistic about Barack Obama »»