Russian President, Mr. Dmitrij Medvedev, has just recognized independence of two breakaway provinces – South Ossetia and Abkhazia. One can say that it could be the beginning of Cold War II or maybe something worse. If we looked on current international politics a little bit closer, all could be more transparent and foreseeable.

The most recent step of Russian Mr. President is just the reply. Western allies opened up the game in February 2008, when they accepted Kosovo’s declaration of independence (some of them directly, the others by means of “constructive silence”). Russia strongly disagreed, but none of our leaders took Kremlin’s words seriously.

The situation is quite similar right now: Russia has recognized Geogrian rebel regions, western democracies disagree, but Moscow doesn’t take their words seriously. In addition, Mr. Medvedev doubled the stake; there are two separatist regions in great demand instead of one, as it was in case of Kosovo. What’s more, Russia has also additional ace at its disposal – strong energy card – and I am afraid it would be ready to use it.

Ladies and gentlemen, just sit and watch, please… Russian power play has just begun. Mr. Medvedev is lucky boy and he has strong cards in his hand. The next move is up to Europe and US. And I am really interested, what will happen if we show our hand in situation when we don’t know what cards we really have…