Everyone knows that game on a coward – two cars drive in the same line against each other and they are about to crash. That driver becomes the winner, who will not dodge the other.

International politics knows its own new gambler called Mr. Dmitrij Medvedev. On Sunday evening, Russian President announced that Kremlin is ready to take retaliations if EU leaders would take some sanctions against Moscow on Monday (1st September).

If we look on possible retaliations, particularly supplies of oil and gas seem to be hard and relevant instrument. However, military operation would be the biggest threat but on the other hand, everyone hopes that Russian leaders are enough intelligent to exclude this option.

Well, there are four possible scenarios. Let’s summarize them:

• Russian and European cars would dodge each other at the same time. In other words, EU members and Moscow would come to compromise and mutual agreement. It has just one weakness – this scenario seems to be unrealizable for this time, because of complete lack of understanding on both sides.
• Russian car would win. It means that EU would do nothing to balance Moscow’s steps. Mr. Medvedev would widen Kremlin’s spheres of influence closer to Europe.
• European car would win. This option represents the state, when EU would follow principled approach to Russia and Mr. Medvedev would make a huge concession. At the same time, there would be one risk – Russia could fall into political chaos and return to 90s.
• Russian and European cars would crash into each other. I think that no explanation is needed. Shortly, it would be the beginning of new Cold War or maybe something worse.

There is one clear option, taking of which would be good deal for both sides. Leaders stand before the tricky situation now: how to play by the first scenario, which seems to be less and less realistic.